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Stocks are up and this is an election year. History shows a correlation. On average, since 1896, stocks do especially well in the third and fourth years of a presidential election cycle. Under Obama, the Dow Jones Industrial Average appreciated 19 percent during his first year as president, 11 percent in the second and 5.5 percent in the third, which averages the biggest gains of a president's term. With about a 6.5 percent price gain this year, the Obama presidency has enjoyed about a 46 percent rise in the Dow since 2009. By comparison, in George W. Bush's first term, the Dow closed down 7 percent the first year, fell another 17 percent the next and rebounded the next two years -- 25 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Still, his first term ended pretty much where it started -- with no gain at all.

Stocks are up and this is an election year. History shows a correlation. On average, since 1896, stocks do especially well in the third and fourth years of a presidential election cycle. Under Obama, the Dow Jones Industrial Average appreciated 19 percent during his first year as president, 11 percent in the second and 5.5 percent in the third, which averages the biggest gains of a president's term. With about a 6.5 percent price gain this year, the Obama presidency has enjoyed about a 46 percent rise in the Dow since 2009. By comparison, in George W. Bush's first term, the Dow closed down 7 percent the first year, fell another 17 percent the next and rebounded the next two years -- 25 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Still, his first term ended pretty much where it started -- with no gain at all.
March 28, 2012
Article
Average Return of Dow Jones in Presidential-Election Years: 5.4%
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