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U.S. Payrolls Rose 217,000 in May, Unemployment at 6.3%, Nearly a 6-Year Low

By Victoria Stilwell
June 06, 2014 4:20 PM EDT 355 Comments
A new aluminum quarter panel on a 2013 Audi AG A8 L sedan at the Ultimate Paint Shop in Lake Bluff, Illinois, on March 13, 2014.
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
A new aluminum quarter panel on a 2013 Audi AG A8 L sedan at the Ultimate Paint Shop in Lake Bluff, Illinois, on March 13, 2014.

Payrolls pushed past their U.S. pre-recession peak for the first time in May, a milestone that’s been five years in the making.

The 217,000 advance in hiring followed a 282,000 gain in April, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. It marked the fourth consecutive month employment increased by more than 200,000, the first time that’s happened since early 2000. The jobless rate unexpectedly held at an almost six-year low of 6.3 percent.

“We’re seeing the continuation of solid payrolls gains, which is an accomplishment for the economy,” said Laura Rosner, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, which forecast a 215,000 gain in payrolls. “We’re slowly moving in the direction of stronger earnings growth, which is really what we need to see for the recovery to continue.”

The broad-based gain in employment points to an improvement in business confidence that raises the odds headcounts will continue to grow. The report also showed incomes climbed, the ranks of the long-term unemployed decreased and businesses took on more full-time help, evidence of the type of economic progress that will keep the Federal Reserve paring record monetary stimulus.

How to Read a Jobs Report

Stocks rose, sending equity benchmarks to records. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.5 percent to close at 1,949.44 in New York.

Survey Results

The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 92 economists projected payrolls would rise by 215,000. Estimates ranged from increases of 110,000 to 350,000.

Economists projected the jobless rate would rise to 6.4 percent as more people entered the labor force. The workforce did climb by 192,000, and almost as many found jobs. It had plunged by 806,000 in April, which helped reduce joblessness by 0.4 percentage point.

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The so-called participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, held at 62.8 percent, matching the lowest since March 1978.

“To the extent that there is a surprise in this data release, it is the steady unemployment and participation rates,” Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York, said in a research note. Movements in participation have been erratic and confusing, making forecasting the jobless rate difficult, he said.

Less Discouragement

The survey of households, from which the jobless and participation rates are derived, also showed the number of discouraged workers -- those who are no longer looking for a job because they think none is available -- dropped to 697,000 last month compared with 780,000 in May 2013.

The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a share of the total jobless dropped to 34.6 percent in May, the lowest since August 2009, from 35.3 percent in April, the report also showed. Those working part-time because the economy wasn’t strong enough for them to find a full-time job declined by 196,000 to 7.27 million.

The underemployment rate -- which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want to work but have given up looking -- fell to 12.2 percent, the lowest since October 2008, from 12.3 percent.

The report “argues for the Fed to continue the normalization process, including the ongoing tapering pace of $10 billion per meeting,” said McCarthy.

Fed Taper

Fed officials are watching the labor market as they get closer to completing their bond-purchase program later this year and start considering the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006. The Fed’s Open Market Committee has pared its monthly asset-buying to $45 billion and said further reductions in measured steps are likely.

Hiring gains may be giving households the confidence to borrow. Consumer credit surged by $26.8 billion in April as Americans boosted credit-card use by the most since November 2007, Fed figures showed today.

Employment in health services climbed by the most in nine months, while payrolls at factories, business services and retailers increased as well.

Hagie Manufacturing Company, a farm equipment producer in Clarion, Iowa, is hiring engineers and people to service machines.

“There’s not the desperation there was” among job applicants, Dave Maxheimer, director of human resources at the company of 509 employees, said in a telephone interview. “Most of the people are employed, which really impresses me. They have jobs, they’re looking to better themselves at a company with room for growth.”

Milestone Reached

The increase in payrolls put total employment beyond its peak of 138.4 million reached in January 2008, one month after the start of the deepest recession since World War II. The economic slump ended and recovery began in June 2009.

“It’s taken an extremely long period of time to gain back all of those jobs, much longer than any other cycle,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. “ It really drives home how painfully slow the process has been.”

Rachel Merry, 24, is among those seeing the improvement in the labor market first hand. She had been casually looking for a more challenging job for the last few months while working in sales at a catering company. She contacted Trak Services in Washington, D.C. to see if the staffing company had any clients with positions that might suit her. She started working for the firm last week.

New Job

“The interviewer kind of threw me a curve ball at the end of the meeting” by suggesting she might be a good fit for an internal position, said Merry, who lives in Arlington, Virginia. The new position “has everything that I was looking for.”

Today’s employment report also showed average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent to $24.38 in May from $24.33 the prior month. They were up 2.1 percent over the past 12 months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg from May 2 to 7 see the U.S. economy adding 225,000 jobs on average each month this year. That would be up from 2013’s average of 194,250 as well as 186,330 the previous year.

While the economy is creating more jobs, wage growth has lagged behind. Slower pay gains corroborate Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s view that a “substantial amount of slack” remains in the labor market. What’s more, limited income growth stands in the way of faster consumer spending.

“While conditions in the labor market have improved appreciably, they are still far from satisfactory,” Yellen told the congressional Joint Economic Committee on May 7.

Economy Contracts

Gross domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, the weakest reading since the same three months in 2011, the Commerce Department said last week. Still, data this week showed factories and service producers are more upbeat.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to a nine-month high in May, while its gauge of manufacturers was the strongest this year. Resilient demand is boosting optimism among automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co.

Autos sold in May at a 16.7 million annualized rate, the strongest since February 2007, according to data from Ward’s Automotive Group.

“The incoming U.S. indicators are consistent with the substantial rebound in growth for the current quarter,” Emily Kolinski Morris, senior U.S. economist at Ford, said on a June 3 sales call. Manufacturing has picked up and “the labor market continued its gradual recovery. These incoming indicators coupled with the supportive policy backdrop should provide positive momentum for the economy.”

(An earlier version of this story was corrected because the share of long-term unemployment was described as the lowest since August 2008 instead of August 2009.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Victoria Stilwell in Washington at vstilwell1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Carlos Torres at ctorres2@bloomberg.net Vince Golle

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